How the grades work.

The pipeline

Grades are produced by a scheduled pipeline, not on demand. Several times a day the system pulls the current prop lines from sportsbook feeds, then builds a feature vector for each prop — the numbers the model reasons over. Depending on the sport, that includes recent form (last-5 and last-20 averages, variance), opponent strength against the exact stat, pace, home or away, rest days, schedule density, batter-versus-pitcher history for MLB, and per-90 rates with expected-goals context for soccer.

The engine compares the model's projection to the posted line — in both directions. It grades the over and the under separately and keeps whichever side it has more conviction in. The output is an 11-step letter grade, F through A+, with a confidence score behind it. The letter is a probabilistic assessment of one side of one line. It is not a prediction and it is never a guarantee.

When the model refuses

If the pipeline cannot build a real projection for a prop — not enough recent games, no per-90 baseline, a data source down — the model refuses to grade it. No letter renders, the prop shows an absent state, and a free read is not consumed. A refusal is not a failure mode we hide; it is the design. A grade with nothing behind it would still look like a grade, and that is worse than no grade.

The same rule applies to every number on the platform: market values (lines, odds, closes) are real book numbers captured at a timestamp, never computed by us. Model values are labeled as model output. Where data is missing, the surface says less. Absent beats wrong.

Archetypes — the VYNDR Originals

Archetypes are VYNDR's proprietary classification of how a player produces — 41 originals across NBA, WNBA, MLB, and soccer, built by scoring each player's real season statistics against production patterns. A TORCH is a high-usage, shot-dependent scorer whose points track his touches. A BOMBERis a power bat whose home-run and total-base props behave differently from a contact hitter's. A GHOST beats you with speed. A CONDUCTOR creates for everyone else first.

The point is practical, not decorative: different archetypes have different reliable and volatile props. Points for a TORCH and assists for a CONDUCTOR are stable; the inverse legs swing with game script. Each classification carries a primary archetype, an optional secondary, and a weighted blend — because most players are not one thing. The classification comes from the same stats pipeline that feeds the grades, so an archetype is re-earned from real numbers, not assigned once and left to rot.

How the Ledger settles

Every grade the pipeline produces is written to the Ledger at the moment it is made, locked with the exact line, the odds, and a timestamp. That entry never changes. If the line moves hard against a graded side later in the day, the system may re-grade at the real new line — and when it does, the original letter stays on the record, struck through, next to the revision. Nothing is revised silently.

After the games end, entries settle against the real box score — the stat the player actually produced, from league data. Hit, miss, or push, recorded once, idempotently. Alongside the result we record closing line value: the pipeline captures the closing line for each graded prop (the last pre-game snapshot of the book's number) and measures whether the market moved toward or away from the graded side between our timestamp and the close. Beating the close consistently is the standard evidence that a model is finding real edge rather than getting lucky, which is why we track it on every entry instead of just counting wins.

Why the misses are public

Every settled miss stays on the Ledger, by name, in the same format and the same placement as the wins, permanently. There are two reasons. The honest one: a record you curate is not a record, and the entire value of this product rests on the record being real. The practical one: nobody else in this industry can afford to do it, because their numbers do not survive it. Ours are built to. The model is wrong regularly — the Ledger shows exactly how regularly, and that transparency is the product working as intended, not a bug in it.

What we never do

• Fabricate a line, an odd, or a result. Market numbers are captured, never invented.
• Ship a grade the model has no projection for.
• Render a percentage on fewer than 20 settled grades.
• Edit or delete a settled entry, win or miss.
• Take a bet. VYNDR is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook.

The record is at vyndr.app/ledger. Draw your own conclusion.